Gas and Electricity Year Ahead Wholesale costs are similar to last week. They remain significantly lower than most of 2021 / 2022 / 2023 but are comparable to 2024. Oil remains at $64.
This current cold spell has had little impact on Gas and Electricity Wholesale prices, most likely due to the more positive outlook for Gas supplies this winter. Although EU Gas Storage is low compared to last year at 82% full compared to 91%, withdrawals have been lower than last year due to the milder temperatures. This also impacts on prices through 2026, as depleted Storage levels need to be replaced for Winter 2026/2027, adding pressure to supplies, especially with the EU restricting access to Russian LNG from January 2027.
The US Exported record amounts of LNG in October, with another facility due to come online shortly. With Norway continuing to invest in Oil and Gas, these nations are helping to offset the reductions.
The potential impact on energy supplies from global events such as conflicts, tariffs and sanctions, will still be built into prices and could see future pressure in either direction as they develop.
Over the last week, the contribution of Wind to generation increased to 36% from 24%, which meant a reduction in the use of Gas at 25% from 34%. The Interconnectors with Europe provided 14%.
Early 2024 saw prices move lower largely due to very high levels of EU Gas Storage, whereas 2025 prices remained high, as stocks were low. With prices showing some stability, we would encourage those with energy contracts ending in the next few months and potentially further out, to engage with Indigo Swan and monitor positions closely.
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